In 59 countries around the world, the birth rate has slipped below the replacement level, which means that in these countries the population is actually declining.Japan is perhaps the most extreme example, as shown above. There the birth rate is about 1.3 children per couple, which is far below the level needed to maintain the population. (2.1 is the replacement rate.)Unless Japan opens its doors to foreign immigrants, which it has historically resisted, then it the population will probably continue to decline, and this is likely to lead to inter-generational conflict as society must choose to allocate resources to various population groups.An example of inter-generational conflict in the US occurs in local school districts that must raise their own funds through local taxation. In districts where a significant proportion of the population is retired people, funding for schools is often lower because the older people vote against taxes for education. (The children, of course, do not have the right to vote, so they are under-represented.)In Japan, the declining population also has significant economic impacts elsewhere. For example, as consumer markets shrink, the profits that Japanese companies can earn in their home market declines, forcing them to go overseas for new applications and opportunities. Which in turn affects the taxation system, which in turn affect everyone.There are a lot of business questions to ask here, and also sociology questions, such as, Why don't Japanese people have more children?

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This blog post is number three in a series on key trends for innovators.
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